In early December, we posted a technical analysis of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100's movement between July 2001 and November 2011. Based on the support and resistance trend lines that emerged from our analysis, we suggested that the index's recent decline did not necessarily represent a departure from its long-term bullish trend. The index was, however, edging closer to the line that had provided support during the previous market downturn in 2008 and 2009.
Since posting our findings two months ago, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 has moved both higher and lower. It succumbed to First Growth price falls in late December and was knocked back 11.63 points (3.90 per cent) to 286.33. In January, however, it rose 3.97 points (1.39 per cent) to 290.30 – its first gain since June 2011.
So has the index breached the support trend line? As you can see from the chart below, it bounced off the line last month. Although a single month's data does not confirm that the market has turned a corner, the year is certainly off to a positive start.