In April, we challenged our trading members – over 420
of the world’s largest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict the 2012
release prices of a basket of some of Bordeaux's biggest wines (shown in the
table below). Now that all the wines have been released, we can announce that
we have a winner.
On average, survey respondents predicted that the basket would
cost €1,443 ex-Bordeaux. In reality, the basket cost €1,318, with 86% of
respondents over-estimating the release prices. Pavie was a clear exception:
96% of merchants expected the wine to come out for less. On average the wines
were 17.5% cheaper than their 2011 counterparts.
Congratulations to the winner of our bottle of J-L Chave
Hermitage 1989 – a merchant based outside the EU – who was out by €15. Second
place was out by just €0.50 more, so it was a tight competition.
The table below summarises this year's results. (Prices are
in Euros per bottle, ex-negociant.)