Merchant predictions_LX100

Twice in 2013 – once at the beginning, and once halfway through – we asked Liv-ex merchant members to predict the end of year level for the Liv-ex 100 Index. Liv-ex members are spread across 35 different countries and account for the vast majority of global fine wine turnover.

It is evident from the chart above that merchants were feeling bullish entering 2013, following two years of market decline. The average prediction at the beginning of the year anticipated an 11.3% improvement in prices; the average prediction halfway through the year still expected a rise of 9.07%.

Having peaked at 279.90 in March (up 7.3%), the Liv-ex 100 has since ground down. The index closed November on 258.46. Unless December sees a 10%+ bounce in prices, it seems that the market's early hopes for the year will be dashed.