We are pleased to announce the results of our members’ competitions to predict the 2013 closing level of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100. The index closed the year at 257.15.
Liv-ex has over 430 merchant members who account for the vast majority of global fine wine turnover. We surveyed them twice last year; first in January, when the Liv-ex 100 level was 260.78 (December 2012). Predictions for the December 2013 level ranged from 204.55–350.30 but were largely optimistic: the average was 290.26 (which would have been a year on year gain of 11.3%). Only 5% of respondents predicted a level below the closing level of 257.15 – one of those was a European-based merchant with a prediction of 253.75. He won two bottles of Domaine Coche Dury Meursault 1er Cru Caillerets 2009.
At the time of our second survey, the level of the Liv-ex 100 was 272.98 (July 2013). Although prices had begun to drift downwards merchants remained bullish. Predictions ranged from 260–332.55, with an average of 284.42. Two merchants – again European based – predicted a close of 260, and were our winners, receiving one bottle of L’Eglise Clinet 2001 each.
Members: This year’s survey is due to be sent out next week. Anonymously collating company performance and future forecasts, the survey report (sent only to members who contribute) offers unparalleled insight into the current state of the market and an interesting take on expectations going forward.