2013 price predictions

Last month we challenged our trading members – 440 of the world’s largest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict the 2013 release prices of a basket of some of Bordeaux's biggest wines (shown in the table above). Now that all the wines have been released, we can announce that we have a winner.

On average, survey respondents predicted that the basket would cost €1,099 ex-Bordeaux. Predictions this year were very close, with the basket costing €1,103 in reality. Unlike last year, merchants under-estimated rather than over-estimated prices, but on the whole were relatively accurate: 48% of all respondents were out by 5% or less. Mission Haut Brion proved the biggest surprise, releasing at 13.4% under predictions, while the average prediction for Cheval Blanc was spot on. Overall the wines were 10% cheaper than their 2012 counterparts.

Congratulations to the winner of our bottle of Montrose 1989 – a merchant based in the EU – who was out by €7. 

Predictions ranged from €705 to €1,287. The chart below table below summarises how predictions varied.

   Merchant predictions_2013