The chart above tracks the average value of bids and offers for a 12×75 case of wine within the Liv-ex 100 against the performance of the Liv-ex 100. The index is calculated monthly using the Liv-ex Mid Price: the mid-point between the highest bid price and the lowest offer price. As the chart shows, bids held steady at the beginning of the year while the average offer price dropped 10% through to mid-May. Put another way, the decline in the index was a result of sellers pushing lower – seeking an exit from the market.
In mid-May, that all changed. Just as the failed Bordeaux 2013 campaign came to an end, so the buyers seemed to abandon all hope. Over the next three months the average bid dropped by 20%, taking the Liv-ex 100 lower by 5.1%. But in the last few weeks the value of bids has begun to rise, pushing the Liv-ex 100 up for the first time in 17 months. The chart suggests that the sellers are done: no longer interested in selling stock at these levels. Whether the market can end the year on the up would seem to depend heavily upon the buyers’ next move.