The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index closed 2013 on 257.15. In January 2014, we asked Liv-ex’s merchant members to predict the closing level of the index in 2014. Although at this point the Liv-ex 100 had fallen for nine consecutive months – dropping 8.1% from March to December 2013 – predictions were generally bullish, with 68% of merchants expecting the index to rise in 2014. The lowest prediction was 200, the highest was an optimistic 360, and the average was 266.85, which would have been a 3.7% increase.
Despite rallying in the last few months of 2014, the Liv-ex 100 closed the year on 238.50, representing a 7.3% fall. As the chart above shows, this fell far below the majority of predictions, with just 11.9% of merchants’ predictions below the actual closing level.
This January we will be once again asking merchants to predict the 2015 closing level of the Liv-ex 100 when we send out our annual members’ survey in a few weeks’ time. With the index having risen 1.9% from July to December 2014, will predictions be bullish once again, or will a consecutive fourth year of declines have dampened their spirits?