Last week we noted that 60% of the wines in the Bordeaux 500 index have moved in a positive direction since July 2014, with 10% seeing price increases of 10% or more. This is amidst optimism about the direction of the market as the Liv-ex 100 rose by 1.9% in January, its largest monthly increase in two years. But which vintages are leading the charge?

Perhaps unsurprisingly it is the older vintages that have moved consistently in the right direction, as shown in the chart below. The well-received 2003 has continued to perform well, while lower priced 2002s and 2004s are edging up. The 2011s have continued to struggle, falling an average of 1.9% over the past seven months.

The top performing of the past ten vintages is the recently reviewed 2005: wines from this year have gained an average of 5.7% since July. Things began to look up for 2005 towards the end of last year following several upgrades from Robert Parker who had previously held concerns about their tannin levels. At the end of January, we observed a ripple effect of these upgrades in anticipation of further reviews, and at the beginning of February, Neal Martin and Jancis Robinson released a number of positive scores for the vintage. Will this trend continue?

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Although both acclaimed vintages, 2010 has outperformed 2009. While the 2009s ran flat – down 0.03% – the 2010s have risen by an average of 1.3%: a turn in fortune for a vintage that previously struggled. As the table below shows, Montrose 2010, which Parker described as “among the greatest vintages ever made in Montrose” when he upgraded it to 100 points in August 2014, has seen the greatest gain, up 24% since July. Ahead of the Chinese year of the Sheep, Mouton Rothschild 2010 has performed well, while the 100-point Le Pin (RP, Feb 2013) also moved up 9.8%.

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