In January we asked Liv-ex’s merchant members to predict the closing level of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index in 2015. The index had closed 2014 on 238.50. Having risen 1.9% from July to December 2014, merchants were bullish. The average prediction was 259.24, which would represent an 8.7% year-on-year improvement on prices. In last year's survey, the average prediction anticipated just a 3.7% improvement.
An overwhelming 90% of merchants predicted that the index would rise by the end of 2015 – far more than the previous year, when 68% of respondents predicted that the index would rise. Last year they were proved wrong – the index fell 7.3% in 2014 – and it remains to be seen whether the optimism this year will be justified. Currently, the Liv-ex 100 is up 1.1% for the year.