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In April we challenged our members – 440 of the world’s largest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict the 2014 release prices of a basket of some of Bordeaux's biggest wines (shown in the table above). Now that all the wines have been released, we can announce that we have a winner.

Unlike last year, the majority of the trade underestimated the overall cost of the basket: 80.8% of merchants predicted lower release prices; 19.2% higher.

On average merchants predicted that the basket of wines would cost €1,285.4. Prices this year were 5.4% above this on average, with the basket costing €1354.5 in reality.

The most accurately predicted price was for the release of Pavie 2014 which came out at the same price as the 2012. On the other hand, the international trade vastly underestimated the release price of Montrose: it came out at €88.8 per bottle, 41.6% higher than the average estimation. Only Cos d'Estournel 2014 and Mouton Rothschild 2014 came out lower than predicted by merchants.

Congratulations to the winner of our magnum of Francois Lamarche, Vosne Romanee Malconsorts 2009, who was out by just €3.9.

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