For the past four years, the movements of the Liv-ex 100 Index have reflected broad shifts in market sentiment. From 2011-13, optimism in the build-up to En Primeur during the first quarter of the year lifted the fine wine market. After this early optimism was dashed by high prices and disappointing campaigns, the index went on to close the year down. This pattern was reversed in 2014 when low expectations for Bordeaux 2013 depressed rather than stimulated the market. Instead, sentiment began to improve in the final quarter of the year.
As we move towards the end of 2015, it appears that patterns detected in recent years have indeed been broken. With no strong pushes of sentiment to follow, the movements of the index have not been in tune with previous cycles: its direction has changed almost on a monthly basis, revealing a confused market struggling to find its feet.
The Liv-ex 100 is currently up 0.7% in 2015. With two months until year end, two questions remain: will the index end the year up? And if so, does this suggest a directional shift for 2016 after four years of decline?