Merchant predictions of the Liv-ex 100 Index

The Liv-ex 100 closed 2014 on 238.50. In January 2015 Liv-ex asked its merchant members, who represent the majority of the fine wine trade globally, to predict the closing level of the index for the year. At this point, the Liv-ex 100 had closed in negative territory for four consecutive years. Still, those who responded remained generally optimistic: the average prediction was 259.2, which would have represented an increase of 8.7%.

Last week Liv-ex revealed that the index closed the year on 238.26, running flat over the year. As the chart above shows, this is lower than the majority of predictions: 90.3% of merchants anticipated gains.

Although bullish, the merchants’ average prediction this year was more accurate than last year: they were 8.8% too high in 2015 compared to 11.8% over in 2014.

Later this month Liv-ex will send out the annual members’ survey which will ask merchants to predict the 2016 closing level of the Liv-ex 100. With the market appearing more stable at the beginning of the new year, will they continue to be bullish in their responses?