Merchant fine wine predictions

In January we asked Liv-ex’s merchant members to predict the closing level of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index in 2016. The average prediction for the year-end is 251.21. This would represent a 5.4% improvement on its closing level of 238.26 in December 2015.

When market participants were surveyed last year, they were slightly more bullish and predicted a year-end close of 259.24 – up 8.7% on the closing level of 238.50 in December 2014.

The Liv-ex 100 currently stands at 243.70 as of the end of February. This is up 2.3% on the December 2015 close.

This year, 86% of merchants have predicted the index will rise by the end of 2016. This is slightly below last year’s survey when 90% of respondents expected it to close higher. In 2015, the index closed broadly flat (-0.1%).

It remains to be seen whether the Liv-ex 100 can maintain its upward momentum and confirm merchant expectations for this year.