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Back in April, Liv-ex members predicted that ex-negociant release prices of Bordeaux 2015 would be 18% higher than for 2014 on average.

While the merchants’ prediction may have seemed reasonable towards the start of the campaign, it now seems wildly optimistic for buyers. With the Bordeaux 2015 campaign now entering its final – significant – stretch, one trend has been noticeable: the increases are increasing.

As the chart above shows, increases of 10-15% were common in April and early May. In the past month all key releases have been above 15% and most are much higher.

The impact of these increases on the ability of the wines to sell through has been weighted against reviews of their quality. Canon, the highest riser, has been a success. It was scored 98-100 by Neal Martin; James Suckling awarded a straight 100. Others have made increases without the same critical acclaim and have struggled to sell.

Many key names including the First Growths are yet to release their wines. The chart above points clearly in one direction. As Otis Clay was moved to sing: the only way is up?

10/06/2016: Cos d’Estournel 2015 added