Liv-ex merchant EP survey

In April we challenged Liv-ex members – 440 of the world’s largest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict Bordeaux 2015 release prices for ten wines. We published their overall thoughts on the vintage here.

Now that all ten of these wines have been released, we can look at how the predictions compared to reality. In last year’s survey, 80.8% of merchants underestimated the overall cost of the basket. This year, 98.4% of respondents underestimated them.

On average, merchants predicted that the basket of wines would cost €1,607.8, representing a 17.8% increase on 2014 prices. In reality the basket costs €2,045.4: a 45.8% increase.

The most accurate price prediction was for Pontet Canet, which saw its first tranche released at €75 per bottle ex-negociant on May 18th (the second tranche was released at €88 on June 14th). At 2% below merchants’ predictions, it was also the only wine whose price they overestimated. Mission Haut Brion 2015 was the biggest surprise – our merchants anticipated it to release at around €184.8 per bottle, rather than the €300 it eventually came out at.

Congratulations to the winner of a magnum each of Troplong Mondot 1998 and Château de Montrachet 2007, whose prediction was out by less than 5%.

Liv-ex merchant predictions