From 2011 to 2013, the monthly movements of the Liv-ex 100 index followed similar patterns. Optimism in the build-up to En Primeur lifted the market during the first quarter but was dashed following disappointing campaigns. The index went on to decline, closing each year down.
This pattern was turned on its head as En Primeur failed to provide a first quarter bounce in 2014 – but market sentiment began to pick up towards the end of the year. This made 2014 the year in reverse. With the direction changed and the pattern broken, the index changed direction on almost a monthly basis in 2015 revealing a discord with previous years.
After an extended period of market decline followed by consolidation, the Liv-ex 100 has moved in one direction in 2016: up. It has gained 22.3% year to date when measured in Sterling terms. If it closes the final two months of the year in positive territory, 2016 will be the first year since records began to consistently see upward movement at the end of every month.