With ex-chateau releases of Latour 2005 expected later this month, yesterday’s blog looked at the ‘chequered’ past of Latour 2005. To continue the Latour 2005 theme, today’s Liv-ex blog examines ‘fair value’ among the chateau’s recent back vintages.
The chart above plots prices for the last ten physical releases of Latour (2002 – 2011). The trend line shows that not all Parker points are equal – lower scoring vintages tend to trade at similar prices, while Parker points become increasingly valuable for higher scoring vintages.
The trend line might be helpful in determining a wine’s ‘fair value’ with vintages below the line potentially offering greater value for money than those above the line, based on the score from Robert Parker.*
The chart highlights that Latour 2005 is only 0.2% above the price suggested by the trend line and may not be considered significantly overvalued at its current Market Price of £6,660 per 12×75. In contrast, the 100-point 2009 and 2010 are both above the suggested price, by 7.3% and 16.8% respectively.
The other high-scoring 100-point 2003 appears to be the most mispriced vintage, falling 24.1% below the trend line. It is also currently offered just above the 98-point 2005 at a Market Price of £7,140. In his 2014 tasting note, Robert Parker said the 2003 is “undeniably the most sumptuous, opulent wine made [at the chateau] since the 1982 or 1961.”
The release price of Latour 2005 will undoubtedly be a major factor in determining its success or failure. The last ex-chateau release was Latour 2007, released at the same level as the Market Price. With the 2005 currently available in the secondary market close to ‘fair value’, a release at this level would likely generate interest from buyers.
* Liv-ex recognises there are other factors that influence the price of fine wine such as brand, vintage and age. However, the chart and trend line offer a useful starting point in the identification of wines that might be mispriced.