This month, exposure on Liv-ex – the total value of live bids and offers – reached a record high of £45,000,000. The total has been climbing for the past ten years, as the chart above shows.
Since mid-2014, when fine wine prices started to increase after three years of decline, the value of offers has mostly been contained within the £12.5m-£15m range. Bids have been on the rise, boosting total exposure.
This also means that the bid:offer ratio has been climbing, and since January 2016 has remained above 1. A bid:offer ratio of 0.5 or higher has historically indicated an uptrend in the market, or at least acts as a signal for price stability.
Recently, the value of offers on the Exchange has broken out of its range, rising above £20m for the first time. The ratio remains high at 1.22, but the gap between bids and offers appears to be closing. With the Liv-ex 1000 dropping in September, collectors might wonder whether these are the first signs that the market is about to change direction.