Every year in the Liv-ex members’ survey, we ask fine wine merchants to estimate the closing level of the Liv-ex 100 index that December. Last year, Liv-ex members predicted that the industry benchmark would increase by 7.8% to close on 320.6. This is just higher than the index’s actual move: it gained 5.7% in 2017 to close on 312.69.

On the whole, merchants were closer to guessing the movements of the index in 2017 than in previous years, as the chart above shows.

Most merchants expected the market to increase in 2017, with 89.4% predicting that the index would go up. The majority – 63.8% – thought the index would move up more than it did. The highest estimate was for a closing level of 389.75. One pessimist guessed 249.98, the lowest estimate.

The winner in 2017 predicted that the index would close at 312.97, just 0.28 points off the actual closing level. He is now the proud owner of a bottle of 100-point (RP) Marcassin Chardonnay 2001.